Greece is generating more clean energy than ever

If clean energy is cheap, why are electricity bills still 46% higher than 2019 levels?

Surprise… the problem is structural.

The Greek electricity market uses ‘marginal pricing’ (like all EU countries), which means that the price of electricity is set by the most expensive generator running at any moment (i.e. wind/solar/coal/etc., but usually gas).

Greece, France and Spain pushed for full decoupling during the 2024 EU electricity market reform. They lost.

Instead, the EU adopted ‘Contracts for Difference’ (CfDs) from 2027, which guarantee green energy developers a fixed revenue floor regardless of the current electricity price (for example, €60/MWh for a solar farm).

Continuing with the above example, under CfDs, if the market price falls below €60, the state pays the generator the difference. Above €60 and the generator pays the surplus back to the state.

So, theoretically, when the price of gas rises to €100/MWh and wholesale electricity spikes, a solar farm on a CfD can't keep that windfall. Instead, it flows back to the state, which is supposed to use it to reduce consumer bills.

But the CfD scheme only starts in 2027 and only applies to new projects. All ‘existing’ renewable capacity sits outside the framework and sells at full market price. When gas spikes, those generators (i.e. PPC, Metlen, and the rest) pocket the windfall.

That's not ‘all’ bad: windfall profits reinvested in new renewable capacity accelerate the transition. And given PPC is ~51% state-owned, a significant share flows back to the Greek state anyway. But, as far as we’re aware, there's no clear mechanism requiring that money to go back to households.

Unfortunately we remain reliant on gas for electricity. This is a global issue, particularly today. And as long as we are reliant on gas, household electricity bills in Greece will be inflated under marginal pricing.

What fixes this? Storage.

But are PPC/Metlen actually incentivised to fix this in the current environment?