What a ‘Super’ El Niño could mean for Greece
NOAA puts the odds of El Niño by summer at 62%, with a 25% chance of a “Super” event. Here is what that could mean for heat, wildfires and water security in Greece over the next 12 months.
NOAA predicts a 62% chance of El Niño by summer, and a 25% chance of a “Super” event.
But what does this mean for Greece?
While El Niño is a major driver of record temperatures, human-induced climate change is the primary cause. El Niño acts as an ‘amplifier’.
So, generally, we can expect a warmer, wetter Greece, with elevated heat, wildfire and flash-flood risk.
Here's a closer look at what happens during a “Super” event (“General”) and how we expect Greece to be impacted over the next 12 months (“Prediction”):
Heat
General: Mediterranean temperatures spike +2ºC during heatwaves and relative humidity decreases by 10%.
Greece: Greece already has Europe's highest heat-related mortality rate (574 deaths/million; 5x EU average).
Prediction: Expect earlier, hotter (+2ºC) & longer heatwaves, more nights above 25°C, and more heat-related hospital admissions across Greece. Expect 2026 to challenge 2024 for the hottest year on record.
Risk: The energy grid lacks deep demand-response mechanisms to manage AC cooling peaks.
Wildfires
General: Increased global burned area by ~4%.
Greece: After three years of drought in Greece, soils remain structurally depleted despite a wetter 2025–26 winter.
Prediction: Models estimate a 15–20% increase in fire intensity vs. Greece's benchmark year of 2024.
Risk: Greece is more “armed” than ever (~20,000 personnel, 85 aircraft, doubled drone fleet), but extreme fire intensity can outpace even the largest suppression forces.
Water security
General: Drier than normal summers across the Mediterranean, followed by high-intensity autumn storms.
Greece: Surface water levels remain ~26% below the 20-year average in Greece. Rainfall is still down 25% nationally since 2022.
Prediction: Models predict evaporation to spike, depleting Greek reservoirs up to 15% faster than in 2025, quickly cancelling winter gains. Expect flash floods as soil is too dry to absorb high-intensity rain storms.
Risk: Greece's €2.5B emergency water plan is now active, but will take years to materialise.
The 2023–24 El Niño brought record-breaking global heat, and revealed the cracks in our water and energy management.
A 2026–27 ‘Super’ El Niño could be Greece's latest and greatest stress test to date.
Bookmark this article. We'll check back in February 2027: Did the forecasts hold? Did the preparations work? Did the gaps matter?
Sources
NOAA Climate Prediction Center – April 2026 ENSO discussion: 61–62% probability of El Niño by summer; ECMWF and NOAA models indicate a 25% chance of a “very strong” (>2.0ºC) event
ISGlobal / Nature Medicine – heat-related mortality in Greece at 574 per million, the highest in Europe (2025/2026 update)
National Observatory of Athens (METEO) – Sentinel-2 satellite data showing Lake Mornos surface area 26% below the 20-year average (Feb 2026)
Hellenic Ministry of Environment & Energy – activation of the €2.5B “Euritus” water management programme (early 2026)
Frontiers in Earth Science – +4% global burned area amplification
Copernicus C3S – Mediterranean extremes reports: −10% relative humidity during heatwaves
ACER (EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators) – 2026 reports on the lack of deep demand-response mechanisms in the Greek grid